Events | 04 March 2025

Tariffs, Trade, and Trump

Uncertainty is Creating a Compelling Change in Emerging Markets

Overview

GMO believes that the movement of supply chains out of China presents a tremendous opportunity for companies in other emerging markets. In this webcast, Warren Chiang, portfolio manager for GMO’s Systematic Equity team, and Arjun Divecha, founder of GMO Emerging Markets, discuss why they believe an actively managed approach is the best way to capture this theme, diversify portfolios, and add value in this environment.

Contact Us to Watch the Replay*

*This content is intended for accredited investors only

Key Points

We are seeing a secular shift of supply chains moving out of China. There are several reasons for this including increasing labor costs in China, increasing risk from geopolitical tensions, and diversification from the single supplier model. 
The movement of supply chains is in its early stages, with significant room for growth even if modest levels of Chinese exports move to other markets. For example, a modest 10% shift in Chinese exports can have a meaningful impact to a range of countries and industries including high tech electronics in India, textiles and apparel in Indonesia, and autos in Vietnam.


10% OF CHINA’S INDUSTRY EXPORTS SCALE TO A MULTIPLE OF PEERS’ CURRENT EXPORTS

As of 5/31/2023 | Source: UNCTAD, GMO

Several examples of how EM countries are positioned to benefit from this already are:

  • Taiwan tech is shifting away from China
  • Mexico is already growing private construction at 20%
  • Indian companies have doubled their sales in the past four years, with strong government support

The “Beyond China” Universe is not expensive

As of 8/31/2024 | Source: MSCI, GMO
Data is 3-months rolling. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. Please visit https://www.gmo.com/americas/benchmark-disclaimers/ to review the complete benchmark disclaimer notice.

  • There is an opportunity for investors - using an actively managed thematic offering which focuses on selecting the countries and sectors that may potentially benefit, and aims to identify the highest quality companies at reasonable valuations within these sectors. We believe the Beyond China strategy captures a growing theme which is not currently priced into valuations. This Strategy is available now via the GMO Beyond China ETF (NYSE: BCHI).

 

Download event highlight here.

An investor should carefully consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing. This and other important information can be found in the fund’s prospectus. To obtain a prospectus please visit www.gmo.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Risks associated with investing in the Fund may include: (1) Market Risk - Equities: The market price of equities may decline due to factors affecting the issuer, its industries, or the economy and equity markets generally. Declines in stock market prices generally are likely to reduce the net asset value of the Fund's shares. (2) Non-U.S. Investment Risk: The market prices of many non-U.S. securities (particularly of companies tied economically to emerging countries) fluctuate more than those of U.S. securities. Many non-U.S. markets (particularly emerging markets) are less stable, smaller, less liquid, and less regulated than U.S. markets, and the cost of trading in those markets often is higher than it is in U.S. markets. (3) Currency Risk: Fluctuations in exchange rates can adversely affect the market value of the Fund's non-U.S. currency holdings and investments denominated in non-U.S. currencies. For a more complete discussion of these risks and others, please consult the Fund's Prospectus. 
The GMO ETFs are distributed in the United States by Foreside Fund Services LLC. GMO and Foreside Fund Services LLC are not affiliated.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are through the period ending March 4, 2025, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.
Copyright © 2025 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved.
Subscribe to GMO Research