Executive Summary
This quarter, we introduce an enhanced method for assessing value in the currencies associated with local debt and re-arrange the report to put the current state of valuations at the front and the explanation of methodology at the back.
The punch line: In the second quarter of 2018 the external debt benchmark was down 3.5% and the local debt benchmark was down 10.4%, a sharp reversal from Q1. The sell-off improved valuations in both local and external emerging debt. In the case of external debt, it moved closer to our measure of fair value (from an overvalued position); we have not seen valuations this attractive since early 2016. In the case of local currency debt, EM currencies are now looking attractive against the USD, but are less attractive relative to the EUR after the USD appreciated strongly in the second quarter. Meanwhile, real yield differentials between EM local bonds and developed market bonds widened to above historical norms.
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